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  • 5.25% Yields. $105 Oil. Stocks Finally Broke

5.25% Yields. $105 Oil. Stocks Finally Broke

The S&P 500 fell 0.77%, the 30-year hit 5.57%, and October hike odds crossed 70%.

Market Minute
Market Minute

Sep 29, 2026

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The Truth Behind Trump’s New Money

President Trump is launching a new $250 bill with his face on it – the first living president to do so since Abraham Lincoln’s $10 demand note in 1861.

The Truth Behind Trump’s New Money

Source: The Kobeissi Letter, X.

Earlier this year, he instituted another currency change – insisting that his signature appear on all new bank notes.

If you’re starting to sense that Trump has taken an unusual interest in our money, you’re on the right track.

In fact, I’d like to show you that his new $250 bill is a mere distraction from a far bigger and more consequential change to U.S. currency being orchestrated behind the scenes.

Something that will affect every dollar you've ever saved or invested.

Bypassing all conventional legal and political channels, under the guise of national security, Trump is enacting a total money reset using a landmark executive order (14241).

Democrat or Republican, support him or despise him, it doesn't matter – the wheels are already in motion.

And that means every American may soon be forced to use Trump's New Dollar to fill your gas tank, buy groceries, pay the bills.

Which is why I've produced this critical new documentary laying out exactly what this means for your savings, your investments, and your family's financial future…

Detailing three important steps you can take today to prepare – including details on a core band of assets connected to Trump’s initiative that could surge, if this plays out as I predict…

Plus the name and ticker of my #1 move to make today.

As you’ll see in my briefing, the last time America reset its money like this – under Richard Nixon’s presidency in the 1970s – it created one of the greatest wealth divides in the history of our nation.

On one side, it minted an average of 1,300 new millionaires a day for over half a century. And on the other… the folks left behind, with many drowning in debt, and no idea how to use America’s new money to create wealth.

As Trump rolls out his new dollar, the question is:

Which side will you be on?

Trump's new dollar

Good investing,
Porter Stansberry

PS. If you’re wondering what Trump’s new money will look like, when it will be issued, what it means for your investments – all of those questions are answered in my briefing.

5.25% Yields and $105 Oil Finally Break Stocks

Wall Street finally gave way Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.251%. The 30-year reached 5.5704%. Brent closed at $105.28. October Fed hike odds crossed 70%.

And the S&P 500 fell 0.77%, its worst day since August 20. Oil stayed high. Rates moved higher. Stocks finally cracked.

What Moved

Monday, September 28

  • The S&P 500 fell 0.77% to 7,683.69.

  • The Nasdaq dropped 0.92% to 26,820.38.

  • The Dow fell 0.67% to 51,481.51.

  • Declining stocks outnumbered gainers by 3.55 to 1 on the NYSE.

  • Nasdaq decliners outnumbered gainers by 2.56 to 1.

  • The Nasdaq recorded 249 new 52-week lows versus just 40 new highs.

  • Nvidia gained 1.6%.

  • Boeing plunged 6.9%.

  • Tesla fell 3.9%.

  • The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.937%.

  • The 10-year climbed about 7 basis points to 5.251%.

  • The 30-year reached 5.5704%.

  • That was its highest level since May 2004.

  • Brent crude rose 0.9% to $105.28 a barrel.

  • WTI crude gained 0.2% to $92.60.

  • Brent had jumped more than $4 earlier in the session.

  • Spot gold fell 3.61% to $4,131.53 an ounce.

  • October Fed hike odds reached 70.3%.

  • That was up from 57.6% one week earlier.

  • And just 17.7% one month earlier.

  • About 16.71 billion shares traded across U.S. exchanges.

  • The recent 20-day average was about 16.85 billion.

Why It Moved

Monday came down to one clean chain. Iran risk pushed oil higher. Higher oil raised inflation fears. Inflation fears pushed Treasury yields higher. Higher yields raised the odds of another Fed hike.

Stocks sold off. That was the whole day. The Middle East remained the first trigger. Oil surged more than $4 early after fresh uncertainty around U.S.-Iran talks. Prices later pulled back as hopes for renewed mediation returned. But crude still closed above $105. That was enough to keep inflation risk alive.

The 10-Year Hits 5.25%

The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.251%. That was its highest level since June 2007. The 30-year climbed to 5.5704%. That was its highest level since May 2004. The 2-year rose to 4.937%.

Those levels matter because they change the math for almost every asset. Mortgage costs stay high. Company debt gets more expensive. And investors can earn more than 5% from long-term U.S. government bonds. That creates real competition for stocks. Monday showed the market finally feeling that pressure.

October Hike Odds Cross 70%

Rate traders moved further toward another Fed increase. The chance of at least a 25-basis-point hike in October reached 70.3%. One week earlier, it was 57.6%. One month earlier, it was just 17.7%. That is a major shift.

The Fed already raised rates this month. Now markets see a second straight hike as the more likely outcome. High oil is one reason. Strong U.S. growth is another. And inflation has not cooled enough to make the Fed comfortable.

Oil Surges, Then Pulls Back

Brent jumped more than $4 early Monday. Then most of that move faded. It still settled at $105.28. WTI closed at $92.60. The pullback came as hopes grew that talks could restart.

That stopped oil from closing at the day’s highs. But the larger point did not change. Brent is still above $100. That keeps fuel and transport costs elevated. It also keeps more pressure on future inflation data. For the Fed, that matters.

The Selloff Was Broad

Monday was not just a weakness in one part of the market. The S&P 500 fell 0.77%. The Nasdaq lost 0.92%. The Dow dropped 0.67%. Declining stocks beat gainers by more than 3.5 to 1 on the NYSE.

On the Nasdaq, there were 249 new lows against just 40 new highs. That is a much weaker picture under the surface. Earlier this month, a handful of large AI stocks were able to hold up the major indexes. Monday, the weakness was too broad for that.

Nvidia Bucks the Drop

Nvidia was one of the few large winners. Shares gained 1.6%. The company expanded its share buyback authorization by $150 billion. That lifted its remaining repurchase capacity to about $235 billion.

The message was clear. Nvidia is still spending heavily on AI. But it also believes its own shares are worth buying. That helped the stock buck the broader selloff. It was not enough to save the Nasdaq.

Boeing Falls Nearly 7%

Boeing plunged 6.9%. The drop came after the FAA said certification of the 737 MAX 10 would be delayed because of a newly disclosed software issue.

That made Boeing one of the biggest drags on the Dow. The timing was bad. The market was already fighting higher oil and higher Treasury yields. A sharp drop in a major industrial name added another hit.

Tesla Drops 3.9%

Tesla fell 3.9%. The stock came under pressure after weaker delivery expectations. That decline added to the stress on growth stocks. Tesla was facing two problems at once.

Weaker company expectations. And higher bond yields. That is a difficult mix for any high-growth stock.

Gold Falls Hard

Gold fell 3.61% to $4,131.53 an ounce. The move made sense. Treasury yields surged. The dollar stayed firm. And traders raised the odds of another Fed hike.

Gold pays no interest. The 10-year now yields more than 5.2%. The 30-year yields more than 5.5%. That raises the cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Monday’s bond move put that pressure on gold fast.

AI Still Has a Rate Problem

The AI boom is still strong. But financing it is getting more expensive. Big technology firms have issued huge amounts of debt to fund data centers, chips and power. That worked more easily when borrowing costs were lower.

Now the 10-year is above 5.2%. The 30-year is above 5.5%. That changes the math. AI investment is not stopping. But the cost of funding it is rising. That means investors will demand more proof that the spending produces enough profit.

Why It Matters Now

Monday left markets with a short list of hard numbers:

  • The S&P 500 fell 0.77%.

  • The Nasdaq dropped 0.92%.

  • The Dow fell 0.67%.

  • The 10-year yield reached 5.251%.

  • The 30-year reached 5.5704%.

  • The 2-year rose to 4.937%.

  • October Fed hike odds climbed to 70.3%.

  • Those odds were just 17.7% one month ago.

  • Brent settled at $105.28.

  • Gold fell 3.61%.

  • Nvidia gained 1.6%.

  • Boeing plunged 6.9%.

  • Tesla fell 3.9%.

  • The Nasdaq recorded 249 new lows against only 40 new highs.

Friday showed that stocks could survive high yields. Monday showed there is a limit. The 10-year hit 5.251%. The 30-year hit 5.5704%. Brent stayed above $105.

October hike odds crossed 70%. Market breadth broke sharply lower. And all three major indexes fell. $105 oil. 5.25% yields. This time, stocks broke.

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