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The 10-Year Nearly Hits 5% Before the Fed
Wall Street rallied Friday. The S&P 500 rose 0.86%. The Nasdaq gained 0.96%. The Dow added 0.98%.
But the bigger number was in bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 4.99%. CPI rose 0.4%. Oil stayed above $100.
And traders pushed the odds of a September Fed hike above 85%. The Fed meets this week. That leaves one clear question. Does the Fed raise rates with the 10-year already near 5%?
What Moved
Friday, September 11
The S&P 500 rose 0.86% to 7,656.98.
The Nasdaq gained 0.96% to 26,333.04.
The Dow rose 0.98% to 52,573.29.
Nine of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors finished higher.
Communication services gained 1.35%.
Consumer discretionary rose 1.13%.
The VIX fell to 15.88.
About 14 billion shares traded across U.S. exchanges.
That was below the recent 20-day average of about 14.9 billion.
The 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 4.9915%.
It later eased to about 4.93%.
August CPI rose 0.4% for the month.
Headline CPI rose 3.4% from a year earlier.
Core CPI rose 0.3%.
Core CPI rose 2.4% from a year earlier.
Gasoline prices jumped 3.9%.
Other motor fuels surged 9.6%.
Airline fares rose 2.7%.
Traders priced the chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike above 85%.
Brent crude closed at $104.61.
WTI crude closed at $100.05.
Gold rose about 0.8% to roughly $4,350 an ounce.
The S&P 500 still lost 0.8% for the week.
The Nasdaq fell 0.7% for the week.
Why It Moved
Friday’s CPI report gave markets two messages. Inflation is still firm. But it was not worse than traders feared. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in August. That matched forecasts.
The yearly rate held at 3.4%. Core CPI rose 0.3%. That was above the 0.2% forecast. The core rise kept pressure on the Fed. But the headline number did not beat forecasts. That helped Treasury yields pull back from their early highs. Stocks then moved higher.
Gasoline Drove the Headline
Energy prices did much of the work. Gasoline rose 3.9% in August. Other motor fuels surged 9.6%. Airline fares rose 2.7%. That matters because higher fuel costs can move into transport, travel and delivery prices.
Food was much calmer. Grocery prices were flat. Fruit and vegetable prices fell 0.4%. Egg prices rose 2.9%. That split kept headline inflation from rising even faster.
Core Inflation Stayed Firm
The Fed also watches prices outside food and energy. Core CPI rose 0.3%. That was firmer than expected. Hotel and motel prices rose 2.4%. Mobile phone costs jumped 5.9%.
Rents rose 0.2%. Motor vehicle insurance fell 0.8%. Healthcare costs eased. The core reading was not extreme. But it was strong enough to keep a September hike firmly in play.
Fed Hike Odds Move Above 85%
Traders pushed the chance of a 25-basis-point hike above 85% after CPI. The odds were much lower one week earlier. That is a large move.
The Fed now has several hard numbers in front of it. Payrolls rose 162,000. Unemployment held at 4.1%. PPI rose 0.4%. CPI rose 0.4%. Core CPI rose 0.3%. Oil stayed above $100. That gives the Fed more room to raise rates.
The 10-Year Nearly Hits 5%
The bond market came within a few basis points of a major level. The 10-year yield touched 4.9915%. It later eased to about 4.93%.
That pullback helped stocks rally. A clean move above 5% would matter. Mortgage rates could rise. Business loans could cost more.
Bonds would offer more yield. And high-priced stocks would face more pressure. Friday did not break 5%. It came very close.
Stocks Rally Anyway
Stocks rose even as hike odds climbed. The S&P 500 gained 0.86%. The Nasdaq rose 0.96%. The Dow added 0.98%.
Nine of 11 major S&P sectors closed higher. The reason was simple. Investors had feared a worse CPI report. They did not get one.
Oil also pulled back from Thursday’s spike. That gave stocks room to rebound after 4 straight down days. It was relief. Not a sign that rate pressure disappeared.
AI Hardware Leads
Dell surged about 12%. Hewlett Packard Enterprise also jumped about 12%. HP gained 8.4%. Strong Oracle results helped lift the group.
Investors saw fresh proof that spending on AI hardware is still producing sales. Oracle itself slipped 1.8%. The bigger point was clear. Investors are still willing to buy AI-linked stocks when earnings support the price. That helped the Nasdaq beat the Dow.
Oil Falls, But Stays Above $100
Oil pulled back Friday. Brent fell to $104.61. WTI finished at $100.05. Both still ended above $100. Oil also gained more than 8% for the week.
Reports of possible talks over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz helped cool prices. But supply remains tight. Saudi output fell sharply in August. Fuel prices remain high. That means oil can still feed into future inflation reports even after Friday’s drop.
Gold Bounces
Gold rose about 0.8% to roughly $4,350 an ounce. That came even as traders raised Fed hike odds. The move was helped by the drop in Treasury yields from their early high.
Gold had been hit hard earlier in the week. Friday brought some buyers back. But with a Fed hike now heavily priced, gold still faces pressure from high rates.
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Why It Matters Now
Friday left markets with a short list of hard numbers:
CPI rose 0.4%.
Headline inflation held at 3.4%.
Core CPI rose 0.3%.
Core inflation stood at 2.4%.
Gasoline rose 3.9%.
Motor fuels rose 9.6%.
Fed hike odds moved above 85%.
The 10-year briefly touched 4.9915%.
The S&P 500 rose 0.86%.
The Nasdaq gained 0.96%.
The Dow added 0.98%.
Brent closed at $104.61.
WTI closed at $100.05.
Oil still gained more than 8% for the week.
The Fed meets September 15–16.
The inflation data is now in. The labor data is in. Oil is still above $100. The 10-year nearly hit 5%. And a rate hike is now heavily priced.
The harder question is what comes after the decision. If the Fed hikes and says more hikes may follow, the 10-year can test 5% again. If the Fed hikes and signals a pause, yields can fall. That could give stocks more room to rise. CPI did not end the inflation problem. It put the Fed on the clock. The data is in. The next move now belongs to the Fed.
