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  • Fed Hike Bets Just Jumped

Fed Hike Bets Just Jumped

Warsh changed the rate outlook Monday. Stocks, gold and Bitcoin all felt it.

Market Minute
Market Minute

Sep 1, 2026

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The Truth Behind Trump’s New Money

President Trump is launching a new $250 bill with his face on it – the first living president to do so since Abraham Lincoln’s $10 demand note in 1861.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter, X.

Earlier this year, he instituted another currency change – insisting that his signature appear on all new bank notes.

If you’re starting to sense that Trump has taken an unusual interest in our money, you’re on the right track.

In fact, I’d like to show you that his new $250 bill is a mere distraction from a far bigger and more consequential change to U.S. currency being orchestrated behind the scenes.

Something that will affect every dollar you've ever saved or invested.

Bypassing all conventional legal and political channels, under the guise of national security, Trump is enacting a total money reset using a landmark executive order (14241).

Democrat or Republican, support him or despise him, it doesn't matter – the wheels are already in motion.

And that means every American may soon be forced to use Trump's New Dollar to fill your gas tank, buy groceries, pay the bills.

Which is why I've produced this critical new documentary laying out exactly what this means for your savings, your investments, and your family's financial future…

Detailing three important steps you can take today to prepare – including details on a core band of assets connected to Trump’s initiative that could surge, if this plays out as I predict…

Plus the name and ticker of my #1 move to make today.

As you’ll see in my briefing, the last time America reset its money like this – under Richard Nixon’s presidency in the 1970s – it created one of the greatest wealth divides in the history of our nation.

On one side, it minted an average of 1,300 new millionaires a day for over half a century. And on the other… the folks left behind, with many drowning in debt, and no idea how to use America’s new money to create wealth.

As Trump rolls out his new dollar, the question is:

Which side will you be on?

Good investing,
Porter Stansberry

PS. If you’re wondering what Trump’s new money will look like, when it will be issued, what it means for your investments – all of those questions are answered in my briefing.

Warsh Sends Rate Bets Higher

Wall Street ended August with a new rate problem. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole speech to make one point clear. Inflation is still too high. And if it does not fall fast enough, the Fed may have more work to do.

Markets heard that as a warning. Rate-hike bets jumped. Treasury yields rose. The dollar climbed. Stocks slipped. Gold and Bitcoin fell hard. The result was a sharp reset before a major week for U.S. jobs.

What Moved

Monday, August 31

  • The S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,711.76.

  • The Nasdaq fell 0.52% to 26,402.42.

  • The Dow slipped 0.02% to 53,559.99.

  • The Russell 2000 fell 1.4%.

  • The 2-year Treasury yield rose nearly 13 basis points to 4.36%.

  • The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5.6 basis points to 4.728%.

  • The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.213%.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.61% to 99.71.

  • Gold fell 3.19% to $4,454.52 an ounce.

  • Bitcoin fell 3.34% to about $77,414.

  • WTI crude fell 0.16% to $83.40.

  • Brent crude fell 0.43% to $89.31.

The major U.S. indexes still finished the week higher. The S&P 500 gained 0.49%, the Nasdaq rose 0.85%, and the Dow added 0.53%.

Why It Moved

The trigger came from Jackson Hole. Warsh said the Fed would have more work to do if officials are not confident inflation is moving back toward the central bank’s 2% goal.

Traders reacted fast. The market-implied chance of a September rate hike rose to about 56%, up from roughly 35% one day earlier.  That was enough to move almost every major rate-sensitive asset.

The sharpest move came in the 2-year Treasury. Its yield jumped almost 13 basis point. That matters because short-term yields tend to track expectations for Fed policy more closely than long-term bonds.

The signal was simple. Markets now see a higher chance that rates rise again soon. Stocks felt the pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed lower. Small caps were hit even harder, with the Russell 2000 down 1.4%. Those companies can be more exposed to higher borrowing costs.

Technology also weakened. Nvidia fell 4.6%, giving back part of Thursday’s surge after its strong outlook. Marvell dropped 10.3% as investors questioned when revenue from its AI chip deal with Google would arrive. Not every major tech name fell. Alphabet rose 1.7%. Apple gained 1.6%. Salesforce also climbed 1.6%. 

Outside tech, PayPal sank 12.7% after reports that Advent and Stripe had ended their pursuit of the company. Gap moved the other way. Its shares jumped almost 13% after the retailer raised its annual profit outlook and named a new CEO for Old Navy. 

Gold Takes the Bigger Hit

Gold showed just how fast the rate trade changed. Spot gold fell more than 3% Monday. Higher rates can hurt gold because the metal does not pay interest. A stronger dollar added more pressure. The dollar had its strongest daily rise in months after Warsh spoke.

That made gold more costly for buyers using other currencies. Bitcoin was caught in the same shift. It fell more than 3% as higher rate expectations reduced demand for risk-sensitive assets.  Oil moved less.

WTI settled at $83.40, while Brent closed at $89.31. Both also fell for the week. Traders weighed higher U.S. rate expectations against reports of a possible deal that could improve shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. 

Why It Matters Now

Monday changed the setup for September.

Several signals now stand out:

  • September rate-hike odds jumped.

  • Short-term Treasury yields moved sharply higher.

  • The dollar strengthened.

  • Tech stocks lost ground.

  • Small caps fell harder.

  • Gold suffered a large one-day drop.

  • Bitcoin weakened.

  • Oil posted a weekly loss.

But the next move will depend on jobs. That is what makes this week so important. Wall Street will get fresh reads on job openings, private hiring and business activity before Monday’s August employment report.

That report is now even more important after Warsh’s speech. A strong jobs number could give the Fed more room to raise rates. A weak report could pull those expectations back.

Markets are already split. Reuters reported Monday that investors were pricing roughly a 57% chance of a September hike, with the August jobs report expected to become the next major test. The S&P 500 also enters the week less than 1% from its record high.

That leaves very little room for bad news to be ignored. The market survived hotter inflation. It survived a jump in long-term yields. And strong AI earnings kept risk appetite alive.

Now the question changes. Can the rally hold if the Fed really is preparing to raise rates again?

Monday gave markets the warning. This week brings the evidence.

Worth Your Time

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