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Wall Street fell again Thursday. Brent surged to $107.63. Producer prices rose 0.4% in August and 5.4% from a year ago. Treasury yields climbed. And traders pushed the chance of a Fed rate hike next week to about 70%. 

Friday now brings CPI. That report lands with oil above $100, strong jobs and producer prices still rising fast. One more hot number could make a Fed hike much harder to avoid.

Thursday, September 10

Oil made the biggest move. Brent jumped $6.42 in one day. WTI rose $6.43. Both closed above $100. Brent settled at $107.63. WTI finished at $102.48.

More attacks on tankers and shipping routes raised fears that less oil could leave the Gulf. OPEC output also fell by about 640,000 barrels a day in August as war and sanctions cut exports. That gave oil traders two reasons to bid crude higher. Less supply. More risk to the barrels that are still moving.

Thursday’s PPI report gave the Fed another hard number. Producer prices rose 0.4% in August. That matched forecasts. But the yearly rise reached 5.4%, up from 4.8% in July.

Energy prices jumped 4.2%. Diesel and jet fuel were part of the rise. Airline fares also climbed. Hospital service prices moved higher. That matters because PPI tracks prices received by U.S. producers.

It does not tell the Fed what consumers paid in August. But it does show that firms are still facing higher prices across several key areas. And crude has risen much further since the August data was measured.

Traders raised the chance of a September Fed hike to about 70%. Before Thursday’s PPI report, the odds were near 65%. That move was not caused by one number alone. August payrolls rose by 162,000.

Oil is above $100. Producer prices are up 5.4% from a year ago. The Fed now has strong hiring and firm price data at the same time. That gives policymakers more room to raise rates if Friday’s CPI is also hot.

Treasury yields climbed again. The 10-year yield reached its highest level in nearly 3 years. The 30-year reached a 19-year high. Shorter yields also rose as traders increased bets on a Fed hike.

Higher yields hurt stocks in two simple ways. Companies pay more to borrow. Investors also earn more from bonds without owning shares. That puts more pressure on stocks with high prices and earnings far in the future. Thursday showed that pressure again.

The S&P 500 fell 0.58%. The Nasdaq lost 0.65%. The Dow dropped 0.60%. The S&P 500 has now lost about 2% in 4 sessions.

Nine of its 11 major sectors closed lower. Materials fell 1.45%. Technology lost 0.91%. Decliners beat gainers by about 2-to-1 inside the S&P 500. About 15.1 billion shares changed hands across U.S. exchanges.

That was above the recent 20-day average of about 14.9 billion. The selling was broad. And it came with heavy volume.

Semiconductors were among the weakest stocks. Nvidia fell 2.3%. Micron dropped 4.7%.

Higher yields can hit chip and growth stocks harder because investors pay high prices for profits expected years from now. When bond yields rise, those future profits are worth less today.

Apple moved the other way. Shares gained 3.6% after the company’s latest product launch. That helped limit the Nasdaq’s loss. It did not stop the broader tech decline.

Gold dropped Thursday. Spot gold fell about 1% to $4,355.85 an ounce. U.S. futures lost 1.2%. Silver fell 4.6%. Platinum dropped 5.5%. Palladium lost 5.1%.

War risk would normally help precious metals. But Thursday’s rise in bond yields was stronger. Gold pays no interest. When Treasury yields rise, investors can earn more by holding bonds. That made precious metals harder to own even as oil and war risk climbed.

The European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points Thursday. Its key rate reached 2.50%. It was the ECB’s second hike of 2026. Higher energy costs played a major role.

Europe buys much of its energy from abroad. Oil above $100 raises costs for homes and companies across the region. Germany’s 10-year bond yield climbed to its highest level since 2011. The message was clear. Higher energy prices are pushing rates higher on both sides of the Atlantic.

Friday brings August CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect headline prices to rise about 0.4% for the month. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2%. Annual headline inflation is expected near 3.4%.

Core inflation is expected near 2.4%. The Fed meets September 15–16. That leaves just a few days between CPI and the rate decision. A hot CPI can push hike odds above 70%. It can send Treasury yields higher again.

Stocks could face another round of selling. A soft number can do the opposite. Hike odds can fall. Yields can ease. Stocks can get relief.

Thursday left markets with a short list of hard numbers:

The Fed now has three hard numbers in front of it. Payrolls rose 162,000. PPI is up 5.4% from a year ago. Brent is at $107.63. Friday adds the fourth. 

CPI. If consumer prices come in hot, traders can push hike odds higher again. If CPI cools, those odds can fall fast. Jobs are strong. Oil is above $107. Producer prices are up 5.4%. Now CPI gets the final word before the Fed.