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The Fed Hiked. 5% Yields Came Right Back
Friday ended with a number Wall Street thought it had just escaped. The 10-year Treasury yield moved back above 5%. Brent stayed above $100. October Fed hike odds climbed to 55.4%.
Yet the Nasdaq still rose 0.40%. That split tells the story. Rates are still high. Oil is still high. But buyers are still willing to own tech.
What Moved
Friday, September 18
The S&P 500 rose 0.17% to 7,650.50.
The Nasdaq gained 0.40% to 26,522.55.
The Dow fell 95.40 points, or 0.18%, to 51,682.64.
The 10-year Treasury yield moved back above 5%.
Technology was the strongest major S&P 500 sector.
Utilities posted the largest sector loss.
Brent crude fell 0.93% to $104.87 a barrel.
WTI crude fell 1.58% to $100.30.
Gold futures rose 0.6% to $4,424.90.
Bitcoin jumped 5.9%.
Coinbase, Strategy and Robinhood gained between 9.1% and 16.4%.
Traders put the chance of another Fed hike in October at 55.4%.
That was up from 42.5% one week earlier.
One month ago, the odds were just 7.2%.
U.S. trading volume reached 25.29 billion shares.
The recent 20-day average was about 16.19 billion.
Why It Moved
Friday had three forces pulling in different directions. Oil fell. That helped stocks. Treasury yields rose back above 5%. That hurt.
Tech stocks still gained. That kept the Nasdaq in the green. The result was a split close. The Nasdaq rose. The S&P 500 edged higher. The Dow fell.
Under the surface, more stocks fell than rose. That matters. The index gains were narrow. Tech did most of the work.
The 10-Year Moves Back Above 5%
The biggest number in bonds was 5%. The 10-year Treasury yield moved back above that level Friday. That keeps borrowing costs high. Mortgage rates can stay high. Business debt stays expensive.
Auto loans stay costly. And investors can earn about 5% from government bonds without owning stocks. That last point matters for tech. High-priced companies now have to compete with a large risk-free yield.
They can still rise. But they need strong earnings to do it. Friday showed both sides. The 10-year was above 5%. The Nasdaq still gained 0.40%.
Another Fed Hike Moves Above 50%
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points Wednesday. The new range is 3.75%–4.00%. By Friday, traders had already moved on to the next meeting. The chance of another hike in October reached 55.4%.
That was up from 42.5% one week earlier. One month ago, it was only 7.2%. That is a large shift. The Fed has firm jobs.
Inflation is still above target. Oil remains above $100. And 16 of 18 Fed officials said they expect at least one more hike before the end of the year. The market now sees that next hike as slightly more likely than not.
Oil Falls, But $100 Holds
Oil fell for a third straight session Friday. Brent dropped to $104.87. WTI finished at $100.30. The decline came as some supply fears eased. But crude is still expensive.
Both benchmarks remain above $100. That keeps fuel and transport costs high. It also keeps pressure on inflation. So Friday’s oil drop helped stocks. It did not remove the Fed’s price problem.
Tech Wins the Day
Technology was the strongest major sector Friday. That helped the Nasdaq gain 0.40%. The S&P 500 rose 0.17%. The Dow did not join them.
It lost 0.18%. That split continued a pattern seen all week. Investors are still willing to buy selected tech and chip names. They are less willing to buy the whole market. Friday’s breadth showed that.
Decliners beat advancers on both major exchanges. The index rose. Most stocks did not. That is a key detail.
Crypto Surges
Crypto-linked stocks were some of Friday’s biggest winners. Bitcoin jumped 5.9%. Coinbase, Strategy and Robinhood gained between 9.1% and 16.4%. That followed a rough stretch earlier in the week. Buyers came back fast.
But crypto faces the same rate problem as other risk assets. Treasuries now pay about 5%. The Fed may hike again. That raises the bar for assets that do not pay income. Friday’s rebound was strong. The rate pressure remains.
Gold Climbs
Gold also rose. U.S. futures gained 0.6% to $4,424.90. The move came even as Treasury yields stayed high. That shows buyers are still using gold as a hedge against war and oil risk.
But the metal also faces a clear headwind. Gold pays no interest. Treasuries do. As long as the 10-year stays near 5%, that competition will remain.
The Week Ends Split
Friday capped one of the busiest weeks of September. The Fed raised rates. Oil stayed above $100. The 10-year moved above 5%.
And tech still found buyers. That split matters. The market is not acting like rates no longer matter. It is acting like some companies can still grow fast enough to beat them. That is a much narrower path. It makes earnings more important. It also makes every move in Treasury yields more important.
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Why It Matters Now
Friday left markets with a short list of hard numbers:
The S&P 500 rose 0.17%.
The Nasdaq gained 0.40%.
The Dow fell 0.18%.
The 10-year moved back above 5%.
Brent closed at $104.87.
WTI closed at $100.30.
Gold futures rose to $4,424.90.
Bitcoin jumped 5.9%.
October Fed hike odds reached 55.4%.
Those odds were just 7.2% one month ago.
U.S. trading volume hit 25.29 billion shares.
Monday starts with three numbers that matter most.
5% Treasury yields. $100 oil. 55.4% odds of another Fed hike. The Fed already raised rates once. The bond market is still demanding more than 5%.
Oil has not fallen below $100. Tech is still holding up. But every rally now has to fight higher borrowing costs. The Fed already hiked. The bond market is still asking for more.


